AFC BOURNEMOUTH: The probability of Premier League survival

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The once ridiculous notion of AFC Bournemouth playing Premiership football is no longer some Football Manager fantasy. The reality is that on Saturday 8th August 2015 AFC Bournemouth will be entertaining Aston Villa in the opening fixture of the new Premier League 2015/16 season at Dean Court.

It really is happening and to reinforce the reality the first away match of the season will see Tommy Elphick and co stepping out onto the historic turf at Anfield, the home of Liverpool FC. One of the greatest English teams ever to grace a football field. It’s easy to imagine, but hard to comprehend.

One season wonders?

The big question is ‘Will AFC Bournemouth be a one season wonder? Or, will they shun the smarmy and predictable premise of the ‘experts’ that they are ripe to go straight back down. Will they hit the happy hotspot of 17th and Premier League survival.

The bookies have already written off the three newly promoted teams AFC Bournemouth, Norwich and Watford. Keeping them company are Newcastle, Aston Villa and of course, Sunderland.

AFCBChampionsEddie2015Winning the Championship title last season was the highlight of a golden era for AFC Bournemouth under the guidance of Eddie Howe. Can it get better?


There is no doubt for the Cherries to stay up they will need to beat the teams that are expected to be in and around the relegation spots. The ultimate goal is to get enough points to finish one place above the relegation zone.

How many points will the Cherries need?

Over the last five seasons the holy grail has ranged from a low of 36 to a high of 40. The target of 40 hasn’t been reached over the last 4 seasons with 39 being the high.

EPLrelegation

To ensure safety we at TFTSE Towers reckon that 39 points will guarantee another season in the Premier League. Will AFC Bournemouth reach the required target and be ready to get their hands on the millions that lie in wait for a second season in the Premier League. Here we give our predictions for each month of the 2015/16 season and hopefully a happy ending. Read on and see if you agree.


unfold

AFCBdatesAug2015The first month of the new season sees AFC Bournemouth take on Aston Villa (H), Liverpool (A), West Ham (A) and Leicester (H). Our home record will be critical to survival and both home games offer a very good chance of points. We reckon a win against Villa and draws against Leicester and West Ham will see a decent start to the season.

PREDICTED: 0 points + 5 points = 5 points
ACTUAL: 0 + 4 = 4 points (-1)

AFCBdatesSep2015There are only three games in September and only one of these is at home. The second month of the season kicks off with Norwich away, followed by Sunderland at home and finishing with Stoke away. Games against other promoted teams and relegation companions really need to be an opportunity to get points. We see September as one win, one draw and one loss

PREDICTED: 5 points + 4 points = 9 points
ACTUAL: 4 + 3 = 7 points (-2)

AFCBdatesOct2015The third month of the season brings Watford and Spurs to Dean Court while the Cherries will have very tough away games at Man City and Southampton. It’s difficult to see us getting anything in the away games and it will be a struggle at home. In a month offering very little we are going to go for a home win against Watford and an optimistic point against Spurs.

PREDICTED: 9 points + 4 points = 13 points
ACTUAL: 7 + 1 = 8 points (-5)

AFCBdatesNov2015The fourth month of the season and its back to three games with two at home and one away. November kicks off with Newcastle at home followed by Swansea away and Everton at home. They say there are no easy games in the Premier League and there isn’t, but once again our home games will be crucial. To survive we will need to take points from November and its 4 points from two home games for us. Away from home we think Swansea will be too strong but, being eternal optimists a point could be on the cards.

PREDICTED: 13 points + 5 points = 18 points
ACTUAL: 8 + 2 = 10 points (-8)

AFCBdatesDec2015The final month of 2015 sees little in the way of goodwill and Xmas spirit. There are five games to contend with and only two at home. Chelsea (A), Man Utd (H) and Arsenal (A) are just three games where we will be lucky to get any points. Can AFC Bournemouth snatch a point off of Man Utd at home. Why not, hopefully Eddie will invoke the FA Cup winning spirit of the 1984 squad and add a point to our total. This still leaves West Brom away and Crystal Palace at home. We have to believe we can pick up points here, 4 to be exact

PREDICTED: 18 points + 5 points = 23 points
ACTUAL: 10 + 10 = 20 points (-3)


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MID-SEASON REVIEW

If the Cherries can get to the start of the new year around the 20 point mark, the omens will be good for the second half of the season. The team will be stronger, more experienced and by far more aware of what is expected of them. The new year also sees the opening of the transfer window and the possibility of bringing in new recruits if needed.


AFCBdatesJan2016The new year will bring new hope and the first four fixtures of 2016 provide an opportunity to grab some serious points. It’s Leicester (A) followed by two home games against West Ham and Norwich, finishing up with a game away to Sunderland. January provides a great opportunity to pick up points and we can see two wins, one draw and one loss.

PREDICTED: 23 points + 7 points = 30 points
ACTUAL: X + X = X points (X)

AFCBdatesFeb2016February will be the time for the Cherries to push on, especially as March and April are tough-looking months and a time that Bournemouth typically take a dip in form. Four games against four teams, well three teams were we will have a chance of picking up points. It’s Crystal Palace away first, tough but a point wouldn’t be impossible. This is followed by Arsenal and Stoke at home. Can we beat Arsenal? Seems unlikely and a much-needed win against Stoke will make up for it. Finally, its Watford away and a very possible three points. We are edging on the side of caution and going for a draw.

PREDICTED: 30 points + 5 points = 35 points
ACTUAL: X + X = X points (X)

AFCBdatesMar2016March is another tough looking month with home fixtures against Southampton and Swansea and away fixtures at Newcastle and Spurs. We would love to beat Southampton but we cannot see it happening and Swansea will be very tough but at home we reckon a point. Newcastle away looks like a possible point while Spurs away will be a narrow defeat

PREDICTED: 35 points + 2 points = 37 points
ACTUAL: X + X = X points (X)

AFCBdatesApr2016As the Cherries head into the final stage of the season April is proving a ridiculously difficult month. Three home matches see us take on Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea. How many points can we get out of that? One at best we think. Away from home its Villa and Everton, hardly guaranteed points earners. We still think that we can pick up points and are going for two draws.

PREDICTED: 37 points + 3 points = 40 points
ACTUAL: X + X = X points (X)

AFCBdatesMay2016
With two games left, how many will we need to survive? Not too many we hope as it’s West Brom at home and Man Utd away. Do we really want to have to beat United in the last game of the season to guarantee safety? Not really. But, it won’t matter, because we will have just put in the performance of the season and grabbed all 3 points against West Brom.

PREDICTED: 40 points + 3 points = 43 points
ACTUAL: X + X = X points (X)

verdict

So there it is our prediction for the Premier League 2015/16 season. 43 points and at least another season in the Premier League and millions more pounds. Our 43 points total finish is the maximum we think we can achieve. Where will this put in the 2015/16 Premier League table? Steve Cook reckons AFC Bournemouth will finish 14th. Looks like TFTSE and him agree.

43points

 

Tales From The South End
Tales From The South End

An Unofficial AFC Bournemouth website with news, video archive, match reports, form guide, football league news, fixtures and results, blog and Cherries shrine

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